Three Horizons Model

Balance your innovation portfolio across current performance, emerging opportunities, and future options

Managing Innovation Across Time Horizons

The Three Horizons Model helps organizations balance their innovation portfolio to ensure both current profitability and future growth through strategic resource allocation.

Horizon 1

0-3 years

Core Business

Mature businesses that generate the majority of profits and cash flow

Revenue:70%
Investment:40%

Key Activities:

  • Optimize existing products
  • Improve operational efficiency
  • Incremental innovation
  • Market share defense

Horizon 2

2-5 years

Emerging Opportunities

Emerging businesses with high growth potential

Revenue:20%
Investment:40%

Key Activities:

  • Scale new ventures
  • Enter adjacent markets
  • Build new capabilities
  • Strategic partnerships

Horizon 3

5-10 years

Future Options

Seeds for future growth through research and pilots

Revenue:10%
Investment:20%

Key Activities:

  • Research & development
  • Venture investments
  • Explore new technologies
  • Test radical concepts

Portfolio Balancing Factors

Resource Allocation

70-20-10 rule for optimal portfolio balance

Risk Management

Diversify risk across different time horizons

Leadership Focus

Different management styles for each horizon

Performance Metrics

Tailored KPIs for each horizon's objectives

Implementation Roadmap

Follow these steps to implement the Three Horizons Model in your organization

1

Map Current Portfolio

Assess all initiatives across three horizons

2

Identify Gaps

Find imbalances in horizon distribution

3

Set Targets

Define ideal resource allocation

4

Reallocate Resources

Shift investments to achieve balance

5

Build Capabilities

Develop skills for each horizon

6

Monitor & Adjust

Track progress and rebalance regularly

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

Over-investing in Horizon 1

Focusing too much on current business at the expense of future growth

Premature Scaling

Moving Horizon 3 initiatives to Horizon 2 too quickly

One-Size-Fits-All Management

Applying the same processes and metrics across all horizons

Lack of Migration Path

Not planning how initiatives move between horizons

Commercify AI-Powered Portfolio Analysis

Our AI analyzes your innovation portfolio and provides recommendations for optimal horizon balance

AI Portfolio Assessment

  • Initiative Classification

    Automatically categorize projects into appropriate horizons

  • Resource Optimization

    Identify resource allocation imbalances and suggest adjustments

  • Risk Analysis

    Evaluate portfolio risk distribution across horizons

  • Transition Planning

    Map progression paths from Horizon 3 to Horizon 1

Dynamic Insights & Recommendations

  • Performance Tracking

    Monitor horizon-specific KPIs and success metrics

  • Opportunity Identification

    Discover gaps and opportunities in each horizon

  • Market Alignment

    Align horizons with market trends and disruptions

  • Capability Mapping

    Identify skills needed for each horizon

Why Use the Three Horizons Model?

Sustainable Growth

Balance current profitability with future growth opportunities

Risk Diversification

Spread risk across different time horizons and maturity levels

Innovation Pipeline

Create a continuous flow of innovations from concept to market

Ready to Balance Your Innovation Portfolio?

Use Commercify AI to analyze and optimize your Three Horizons strategy