Market Analysis
Market Intelligence Engine
Market intelligence for a new technology comes down to three questions: how big is the opportunity, who else is solving the problem, and what stands between you and the first sale. Commercify has free tools for each of them today. A live monitoring engine is not built yet, and this page says so plainly.
What you can use today
Four free tools, each with a plain note on what it does not do.
Market Sizing Calculator
Works out TAM, SAM and SOM three ways (top-down from an industry figure, bottom-up from customer counts and price, and value theory from the cost of the problem) and shows them side by side so you can see where the estimates disagree.
Limits: It uses only the numbers you type in. It does not pull market data from anywhere, so the result is as good as your inputs.
Deep Tech Market Maps
Written overviews of deep tech categories such as quantum computing, biotechnology, advanced materials, robotics, space, energy and photonics, with the main types of players and the usual routes to market in each.
Limits: These are editorial pages, updated by hand. They are a starting point for desk research, not a live database.
AI GTM Strategy Generator
Claude writes a commercialization report from the technology, industry, stage and target customer you describe. Its market assessment and target segments sections give you a first written view of the market and who to approach first.
Limits: The model works from your description and its general knowledge. It has no paid data feeds, so treat any figure in the report as a lead to check, not a fact.
Regulatory Pathway Navigator
A guide to the common regulatory routes for medical devices, drugs and other regulated products, including FDA and CE marking pathways, so you can see what approval work stands between you and revenue.
Limits: It is a static guide. It does not monitor rule changes or replace regulatory counsel.
Planned
Not built yet
We would like Commercify to watch a market for you over time. None of the following exists today, and there is no release date:
- Ongoing tracking of competitors, patents and funding announcements
- Alerts when something relevant to your technology changes
- Connections to patent and grant databases inside the strategy report
Until then, the six-step method below and the free sources it names will get you most of the way with a few days of focused work.
How to build market intelligence for an early-stage technology
Large companies buy syndicated research and run competitive intelligence teams. A researcher, tech transfer office or small founding team usually has neither, and does not need them at the start. What it needs is a clear, written view of the market that is honest about its assumptions and gets sharper with every customer conversation. This is the order we suggest.
- 1
Define the problem and the buyer before the market
A market is a group of buyers with the same problem and a budget to solve it, not an industry label. Write down who feels the pain, who signs the purchase order (often a different person), and what they do today instead. "Battery storage" is not a market; "grid-scale storage developers who need cheaper cathode material for four-hour systems" is closer to one.
- 2
Size it three ways and compare
Top-down sizing starts from a published industry figure and narrows it. Bottom-up sizing counts the customers you could actually reach and multiplies by a realistic price. Value-theory sizing estimates what the problem costs buyers and what share of that cost they would pay to remove it. When the three answers differ by an order of magnitude, the gap usually points to a wrong assumption about price or reachable customers. Investors and licensees tend to put the most weight on the bottom-up number because it shows you know who the customers are.
- 3
Map competing alternatives, including doing nothing
List direct competitors, adjacent products that solve part of the problem, in-house workarounds, and the option of not changing at all. For early-stage technology the status quo is often the strongest competitor: the buyer already has a process that works well enough. For each alternative, note what it costs, what it does badly, and what switching would require.
- 4
Read the IP and funding landscape
Patent filings show who is investing in a technical approach and where freedom-to-operate questions may come up. Free sources include Google Patents, the USPTO's Patent Public Search and the EPO's Espacenet. Grant and award databases such as SBIR.gov and NIH RePORTER show which problems public funders are paying to solve and which groups are working on them. Company filings on the SEC's EDGAR system give revenue and segment detail for public incumbents.
- 5
Check the regulatory and reimbursement path
In regulated markets, the approval route sets both the timeline and the capital you will need before the first sale. In healthcare, a cleared device is not the same as a reimbursed one. Find out which pathway applies, roughly what evidence it needs, and who pays once the product is approved.
- 6
Talk to buyers, then revise everything above
Desk research gives you hypotheses. A round of conversations with people who match your buyer description will tell you whether the problem is urgent, what they pay today, and what would make them switch. Update the sizing and the competitor map after each round, and keep a dated log of what changed and why.
Common mistakes
- Quoting the whole industry as your market. A large top-down figure tells a reader you have not yet worked out who will buy first.
- Listing only competitors that look like you. Buyers compare you with spreadsheets, consultants and their current supplier, not only with other startups.
- Treating AI output as research. A language model can summarise a market quickly and is useful for a first draft, but it can state wrong figures with confidence. Check every number against its source.
- Doing the research once. Markets, rules and competitors move. Revisit the sizing and competitor map at each funding or licensing milestone.
Where to go next
Once you have a view of the market, the next decision is usually how to bring the technology to it. The commercialization pathway guide covers licensing, spin-outs and partnerships. If you are working with a university invention, the university tech transfer directory lists offices and their published metrics, and Find Licensing Opportunities helps you look for available technologies.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Commercify have a live market intelligence platform?
No. Commercify does not run a live market data platform, competitor monitoring or alerts. What is available today is free: a market sizing calculator that uses your inputs, editorial market maps for deep tech categories, a regulatory pathway guide, and an AI-written strategy report that includes a market assessment. Ongoing monitoring is planned but not built.
Where does the market data in the strategy report come from?
The GTM Strategy Generator uses Claude, a large language model, working from the description you enter and its general training knowledge. It is not connected to patent, funding or market research databases. Any market size, competitor name or figure in the report should be checked against a primary source before you rely on it.
Which market size number should I show investors or licensees?
Lead with the bottom-up estimate, because it is built from customers you can name and a price you can defend. Use the top-down figure for context. If the two are far apart, explain why rather than picking the larger one.
What free sources are useful for deep tech market research?
Google Patents, USPTO Patent Public Search and Espacenet for patent activity; SBIR.gov and NIH RePORTER for public funding; SEC EDGAR for public company filings; and trade association reports and conference proceedings for industry structure. Conversations with potential buyers matter more than any of these.
Is any of this free?
Yes. Every tool linked on this page is free to use without an account. The strategy generator asks for your name and email so it can send you the report.
Start with the numbers you have
The calculator takes a few minutes and shows you which assumptions matter most. The strategy report then puts them in context. Both are free.