Innovation Assessment

How to assess a technology's commercial potential

An innovation assessment answers one practical question: is this technology worth the next round of time and money, and if so, by which route? Researchers ask it before a spinout, tech transfer offices ask it when deciding whether to patent a disclosure, and companies ask it when choosing between projects. The method is the same in each case. Look at six dimensions, write down the evidence for each, and be explicit about what you do not know.

1. Establish technical maturity

Technology Readiness Levels give you a common language. TRL 1 to 3 covers basic principles and proof of concept; TRL 4 to 6 covers validation in the lab and then in a relevant environment; TRL 7 to 9 covers demonstration in an operational setting through to a proven system. Be strict: a result that works once on a bench is not the same as one that works reliably in conditions a customer would recognize. The TRL assessment asks one question per level and suggests next steps for the level you reach. The TRL framework guide explains each level in more detail.

2. Test market need separately

Technical maturity says nothing about demand. List the applications where the technology could matter, and for each, name the buyer, the current solution and what switching would gain them. Then talk to people in the two or three most promising applications. Signals that count are specific: a request for a pilot, an offer to share data, a named budget. Polite interest does not.

3. Compare against the real alternative

Buyers compare a new technology with what they do today, not with an ideal. A material that performs better but needs a new production line may lose to a weaker one that drops into existing equipment. Write down the cost, performance and switching effort of the current solution next to yours.

4. Check the IP position early

For licensing in particular, value depends on protection. Note what has been filed, what has been published (publication can affect patentability), and whether others hold patents that could block you. A freedom-to-operate opinion needs a patent attorney, but a first search of public patent databases costs nothing and often changes the plan.

5. Choose a plausible path to market

Decide who would make, sell and support the product. If a company already does that for a related product, licensing may be the faster route. If no one does, a spinout or a development partnership may be needed. The GTM Strategy Generator recommends a pathway with its reasoning, which is a useful draft to argue with.

6. Estimate cost, time and regulatory burden

A rough view of what it takes to reach first revenue is part of the assessment: the development work left, any regulatory approvals, the capital required and where it could come from. The deep-tech risk assessment covers technology, adoption, and regulatory and IP risk in one pass.

Turning the assessment into a decision

Summarize each dimension as strong, uncertain or weak, with one line of evidence. Then decide: proceed on a specific route, run a defined experiment to resolve the biggest uncertainty, or stop. When you have several projects competing for the same people and budget, the innovation prioritization matrix lets you compare them on weighted criteria so the trade-offs are visible.

Repeat the assessment when something important changes: a new test result, a pilot outcome, a patent decision. A good assessment is a living document, not a one-time score.

Common mistakes

• Treating a strong technical result as evidence of market demand.
• Assessing every possible application instead of choosing two or three to test.
• Publishing before deciding whether to file a patent.
• Relying on a headline market figure without checking what it includes.
• Scoring dimensions without writing down the evidence behind each score.